Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,952
2 Rhode Island 143,683
3 South Dakota 140,569
4 Utah 127,771
5 Tennessee 124,789
6 Arizona 121,828
7 Iowa 118,088
8 Wisconsin 116,152
9 Nebraska 115,690
10 South Carolina 115,538
11 Oklahoma 114,833
12 New Jersey 114,787
13 Arkansas 113,978
14 Delaware 112,304
15 Indiana 111,766
16 Alabama 111,626
17 Illinois 109,823
18 Kansas 108,943
19 New York 108,336
20 Idaho 108,330
21 Mississippi 107,224
22 Florida 107,124
23 Minnesota 107,073
24 Nevada 106,208
25 Montana 105,604
26 Wyoming 105,596
27 Georgia 104,002
28 Kentucky 103,717
29 Massachusetts 102,847
30 Texas 102,480
31 Louisiana 102,253
32 Missouri 101,306
33 Michigan 99,653
34 Connecticut 97,706
35 New Mexico 97,310
36 California 96,228
37 Colorado 96,214
38 North Carolina 96,156
39 Alaska 95,776
40 Pennsylvania 94,751
41 Ohio 94,707
42 West Virginia 90,918
43 Virginia 79,402
44 Maryland 76,333
45 New Hampshire 72,859
46 District of Columbia 69,653
47 Washington 58,581
48 Puerto Rico 54,162
49 Maine 51,026
50 Oregon 48,611
51 Vermont 38,975
52 Hawaii 25,230

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 177
2 Colorado 113
3 Tennessee 94
4 Utah 84
5 Arkansas 82
6 Missouri 79
7 Arizona 61
8 Wyoming 59
9 Oregon 56
10 Washington 51
11 Hawaii 47
12 Indiana 41
13 Kentucky 35
14 North Dakota 35
15 Delaware 34
16 Maine 34
17 Georgia 32
18 Nevada 28
19 Ohio 28
20 Alaska 27
21 New Jersey 27
22 Texas 27
23 Minnesota 26
24 Mississippi 26
25 Illinois 25
26 Iowa 25
27 Kansas 25
28 New York 25
29 Idaho 22
30 Pennsylvania 22
31 Montana 21
32 New Mexico 19
33 California 18
34 Michigan 18
35 Puerto Rico 18
36 West Virginia 17
37 Louisiana 16
38 Maryland 15
39 Massachusetts 14
40 North Carolina 14
41 Oklahoma 14
42 South Carolina 14
43 Alabama 12
44 Virginia 12
45 Rhode Island 8
46 Nebraska 7
47 South Dakota 7
48 New Hampshire 6
49 Wisconsin 6
50 District of Columbia 3
51 Vermont 3
52 Connecticut 2

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,964
2 New York 2,722
3 Massachusetts 2,602
4 Rhode Island 2,569
5 Mississippi 2,470
6 Arizona 2,441
7 Connecticut 2,317
8 Alabama 2,297
9 Louisiana 2,290
10 South Dakota 2,290
11 Pennsylvania 2,151
12 Michigan 2,079
13 New Mexico 2,050
14 Indiana 2,041
15 North Dakota 2,035
16 Illinois 2,010
17 Arkansas 1,942
18 Iowa 1,934
19 Georgia 1,928
20 South Carolina 1,899
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,825
23 Tennessee 1,815
24 Texas 1,796
25 Kansas 1,764
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,718
29 Kentucky 1,612
30 District of Columbia 1,611
31 California 1,609
32 Maryland 1,602
33 Missouri 1,597
34 West Virginia 1,589
35 Montana 1,535
36 Wisconsin 1,376
37 Minnesota 1,348
38 Virginia 1,324
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,266
41 Wyoming 1,252
42 Colorado 1,186
43 Idaho 1,185
44 New Hampshire 1,000
45 Puerto Rico 792
46 Washington 769
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 654
49 Maine 628
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Florida 4
2 Michigan 2
3 Alaska 1
4 Arizona 1
5 Colorado 1
6 Georgia 1
7 Illinois 1
8 Indiana 1
9 Kentucky 1
10 Maryland 1
11 Minnesota 1
12 North Dakota 1
13 Ohio 1
14 Pennsylvania 1
15 South Carolina 1
16 Virginia 1
17 Alabama 0
18 Arkansas 0
19 California 0
20 Connecticut 0
21 Delaware 0
22 District of Columbia 0
23 Hawaii 0
24 Idaho 0
25 Iowa 0
26 Kansas 0
27 Louisiana 0
28 Maine 0
29 Massachusetts 0
30 Mississippi 0
31 Missouri 0
32 Montana 0
33 Nebraska 0
34 Nevada 0
35 New Hampshire 0
36 New Jersey 0
37 New Mexico 0
38 New York 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 Oklahoma 0
41 Oregon 0
42 Puerto Rico 0
43 Rhode Island 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,328 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 277,031 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,849 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,236 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,320 193 93
Richland South Carolina 113,854 999 68
York South Carolina 113,674 1003 68
Orange California 85,855 2269 27
Pierce Washington 62,124 2831 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,607 1853 41
York South Carolina 1,392 2109 32
Richland South Carolina 1,383 2121 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,383 2122 32
Pierce Washington 733 2775 11

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons